HOOPSANALYST
Quickthoughts
by Harlan Schreiber (12/26/06)
1. A Little More Brawl Stuff: A quick footnote on the Nuggets-Knicks brawl. Since David Stern handed down the penalties, there has been a ton written and stated about how Stern got the punishments wrong. Specifically, people believe that it was unfair that J.R. Smith was suspended as many games as Nate Robinson and Mardy Collins, who did most of the hitting. These views assume that the NBA suspensions were driven by our classic notions for punishment: deterrence, retribution, and rehabilitation. In his tenure as commissioner, however, Stern has consistently meted suspensions for fighting based almost entirely on deterrence. Stern doesn't care who started a fight between two players as much as the persons who elevate the incident.
The most notable example of Stern's concerns arose with the infamous Heat-Knicks brawl during the 1996-97 playoffs. At the time, the Knicks led the series 3-1 and Knicks guard Charlie Ward became entangled with Heat forward P.J. Brown after a free throw. Brown then flipped the smaller Ward over his head and into the stands. The incident happened in front of the Knicks bench and almost every player on the bench left, mandating a one game for suspension for each one of the players that left the bench, most of whom happened to be the Knicks' starting team of Patrick Ewing, Allan Houston, Larry Johnson, and sixth man John Starks (Brown was suspended two games and Ward for one). No Heat players left the bench, likely because the incident happened so far away from them. None of the four suspended Knicks did any fighting a la Nate Robinson or Carmelo Anthony. Based on the circumstances, you'd think that Stern might've tried to alter the rules slightly so as to moderate the suspensions.
Indeed in a court proceeding, Player's Association President Billy Hunter's stated the following position in a brief challenging the suspensions: "the NBA did not make any determination as to whether the players took any action that is prejudicial to or against the best interests of the NBA or the game of basketball. Instead, it simply has determined that they left the bench area in violation of a purported League rule which is not part of the CBA." The court denied this application, noting that Stern had broad discretion to determine suspensions under the CBA and the Knicks ended up losing the series to the Heat. Based upon his decision making in the Pistons-Pacers riot and, here, with this year's brawl, Stern clearly had no regrets in how he handled the incident. It is apparent that Stern's sole concern is limiting and deterring full-fledged fights. Two players can get into it but if it goes beyond that all will be punished severely. I agree with the general policy but I would probably make some attempt to punish the most culpable, it just seems wrong to not sort out the layers of fault, where they may obviously exist.
2. Wade-Kobe-ABC-Yawn: It's only taken three years, but I am officially uninterested in the Lakers-Heat feud. Usually, the NBA will provide us with at least two games each Christmas but this year we only got one game and, once again, the game involved the Lakers versus the Heat. ABC has been forcing this one down our throats for the past three years, ever since Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant had their trade/fallout in the summer of the 2004. Watching Kobe play Dwyane Wade holds some interest but this is the third year in a row of this crap. Enough already. All pro rivalries lose steam as time passes. A Lakers-Celtics game isn't that interesting these days. Similarly, Kobe and Shaq have let it go publicly.
The subtext of my complaints, are really directed at the network programming. While network coverage usually makes no difference to me, ABC/ESPN has done a particularly poor job of telling the NBA's stories, informing viewers when games are on, and promoting the product and belaboring the Kobe-Shaq thing is the prime example of that fact. In addition, This was the first year since 1990-91, that only one game was shown on Christmas day. I know the NFL was competing with some games last night but some degree of creativity in finding and broadcasting games, on some level, would have been appreciated. I'm not naive enough to say that NBC, CBS, or TNT don't hype up the usual angles but there is a palpable lack of artistry to ESPN/ABC and this seems particularly evident today.
Stepping off of the soapbox, Wade and Kobe are probably the closest thing we have to Michael Jordan right now. That got me thinking off all the shooting guards who have had hit Jordanesque numbers for a season since MJ left the Bulls in 1997-98. While I know that linear weights models have limitations, I thought using the PER rating would be a nice way to do a quick comparison of total offensive numbers between MJ and his successors. Jordan, at his peak, never had a PER below 29.4 (he dipped below this his last two years with the Bulls). Here's a look at shooting guards and small forwards who broke at least 25 PER each year since MJ left the Bulls (PER based upon Basketball-Reference.com calculations):
1998-99: None
1999-00: None
2000-01: Tracy McGrady (25.0)
2001-02: Tracy McGrady (25.1)
2002-03: Tracy McGrady (30.3), Kobe Bryant (26.2)
2003-04: Tracy McGrady (25.3)
2004-05: LeBron James (25.4)
2005-06: LeBron James (28.1), Kobe Bryant (28.0), and Dwyane Wade (27.6)
2006-07: Dwyane Wade (27.2), LeBron James (26.0), Gilbert Arenas (25.8), Carmelo Anthony (25.7)
As if we needed reminding, Jordan was pretty good. For a matter of perspective, besides Jordan, All of the the above guards beat Clyde Drexler (the clear number two behind Jordan in the 1980s and early 1990s) never broke 24.1--something T-Mac, Carter, Kobe, and Wade all have done. But overall, only T-Mac of 2002-03 has quite approached a Jordan prime year. In 2005-06, we did see, however, several players get a little closer. It is possible that the new rule changes will allow for higher stat numbers. We are still a long ways away, however, from seeing another Jordan.
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