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Comparing Eras

by Harlan Schreiber (12/31/03)

One of the more vexing questions is comparing basketball players from different eras. Wilt Chamberlain's monster 50.4 ppg average in 1961-62 is unmatched. But in context, how impressive is it versus Allen Iverson's league leading 31.1 ppg in 2000-01? Similarly, we don't seem to get the monster boarding years like Jerry Lucas' 21.1 rpg in 1965-66. Oscar Robertson and Chamberlain have often taken their raw numbers as proof that the players of the modern era can't compare with their predecessors.

Of course, that might not be entirely true. Like with other sports, the NBA has undergone many different trends in its history. It was once a run and gun league with low percentage shooting. It has morphed to a high scoring/high shooting percentage league to a low scoring league. These changes seem to have more to do coaching decisions on pace than on any innate skill that one generation had over another.

Wilt's 50 ppg season occurred at the highest scoring season in league history. It was also the time of the highest rebounds in NBA history. In his record setting season, Wilt scored an impressive 40.2% of his teams points. By contrast, Iverson led the league in scoring in 2000-01, the lowest scoring (non-lockout) season in NBA history. He scored 32.8% of his teams points. Not as dominant as Wilt's year but if he had scored 32.8% of the old Warriors' points in 1961-62, Iverson would have averaged 41.1 ppg.

This is not the first time this era comparison issue has been broached. Alleyoop.com's John Hollinger has noted that Dennis Rodman grabbed a larger percentage of available rebounds than the great rebounders of the 1960s. Dean Oliver noted in his new book "Basketball on Paper" that Michael Jordan's was every bit as prolific as Wilt when he score 37 ppg for the Bulls in 1986-87. I'm not suggesting Iverson was as good a scorer as Wilt or that Rodman is definitely the best rebounding of all time. Rather, I think the lesson is that context matters in assessing players historically. Let's take a look at the average totals of teams by season:

Year FG% PPG Rebs Asts Tos Comments/Noteworthy Events

1953-54 .372 79.5 3665 1465 N/A 72-game season

1954-55 .385 93.1 4025 1702 N/A 24-second clock instituted

1955-56 .387 99.0 4327 1747 N/A George Mikan retires

1956-57 .380 99.6 4494 1359 N/A Bill Russell's rookie year

1957-58 .383 106.6 5160 1414 N/A

1958-59 .395 108.3 4930 1412 N/A

1959-60 .410 115.3 5513 1692 N/A Wilt Chamberlain's rookie year; 75-game season

1960-61 .415 118.1 5789 1910 N/A 79-game season

1961-62 .426 118.8 5713 1915 N/A 80-game season

1962-63 .441 115.3 5338 2077 N/A

1963-64 .433 111.0 5269 1713 N/A

1964-65 .426 110.6 5381 1676 N/A

1965-66 .433 115.5 5458 1829 N/A

1966-67 .441 117.4 5454 1817 N/A 81-game season

1967-68 .445 116.6 5431 1873 N/A 82-game season

1968-69 .441 112.3 4666 1898 N/A

1969-70 .460 116.7 4336 2027 N/A

1970-71 .424 112.4 4356 1991 N/A

1971-72 .455 110.2 4018 1972 N/A

1972-73 .456 107.6 4121 2066 N/A

1973-74 .459 105.7 3955 2020 1706

1974-75 .447 102.6 3859 1953 1628

1975-76 .458 104.3 3887 1886 1621

1976-77 .465 106.5 3858 1956 1687 NBA-ABA Merger

1977-78 .469 108.5 3863 2054 1646

1978-79 .485 110.3 3707 2112 1623

1979-80 .482 109.3 3685 2117 1553 Magic and Bird debut; 3-point line introduced

1980-81 .486 108.1 3566 2088 1537

1981-82 .491 108.6 3565 2063 1454

1982-83 .485 108.5 3646 2124 1567

1983-84 .492 110.1 3528 2148 1468

1984-85 .491 110.8 3566 2153 1465 Michael Jordan Debuts

1985-86 .487 110.2 3572 2133 1463

1986-87 .480 109.9 3610 2130 1393

1987-88 .480 108.2 3558 2113 1372

1988-89 .477 109.2 3601 2097 1412

1989-90 .476 107.0 3538 2038 1317 "Bad Boy" Pistons repeat as Champs

1990-91 .474 106.3 3547 2029 1315

1991-92 .472 105.3 3581 2007 1275

1992-93 .473 105.3 3537 2026 1305

1993-94 .466 101.5 3526 2000 1312 MJ Retires (1st time)

1994-95 .466 101.4 3408 1916 1308 3-point line moved in

1995-96 .462 99.5 3383 1860 1298

1996-97 .455 96.9 3369 1808 1285

1997-98 .450 95.6 3407 1806 1270 3-point line moved back

1998-99 .437 91.6 3416 1699 1256 50-game lockout season (total are pro-rated to 82-game season)

1999-00 .449 97.5 3519 1832 1269

2000-01 .443 94.8 3482 1832 1234

2001-02 .445 95.5 3477 1798 1186 Zone defense allowed

2002-03 .442 95.1 3469 1784 1223

Looking at the above list, you get the sense of how the league has changed a little better. We are currently in the middle of a steady deflation of offense since the mid-1980s. We bottomed out during the lockout season of 1998-99 and have floundered slightly above that level ever since. In this basket-scarce environment, scorers can look worse than comparable players from 15-20 years ago.

The next interesting question to ponder is what caused the offensive trends to proliferate and what caused them to shift. I have my suspicions. It seems that offensive grew from the meager levels of the 1950s as offensive strategy and the first big stars came into the NBA. The NBA became somewhat statistically trendless in the 1970s with the retirement of the first great wave of players and the dilution brought on by the rival ABA. In the 1980s, offense became as efficient as it ever would be, with high scoring, high shooting percentage, and lower turnover rates than the previous

eras (with the caveat the turnovers were not recorded until the 1970s). Defense has clamped down ever since. Was it the Bad Boy Pistons and the Pat Riley Knicks that encouraged this behavior? I have no idea. But the issues are out there to examine for the future.

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