HOOPSANALYST

Quickthoughts

by Harlan Schreiber (10/2/04)

1.    Fantasy Hoops:    As NBA fans know, there is little to nothing going on in the league these days.  I thought, then, that this would be a good time to go over something everyone is thinking about, fantasy hoops.  Here is my current top 10:

(1) Kevin Garnett- He does everything!

(2) Tim Duncan- The best center in the game, and stays healthy too.

(3) Shaquille O'Neal- He will be healthy and great this year.

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After these guys, there is a pretty big drop off. 

(4) Kobe Bryant-He can do anything he wants now.

(5) Dirk Nowitzki-Expect him to score a bit more with Nash, Antoine, and Antawn gone

(6) Elton Brand-Solid.

(7) Andrei Kirilenko- KG Lite.

(8) Yao Ming-He'll be good, will he shoot enough?  I'd take the risk and find out.

(9) Jermaine O'Neal-Will need to shoot better this year.

(10) This is an open slot to me.  I don't think Tracy McGrady will put up the same numbers with Jeff Van Gundy he did in Orlando.  LeBron James will be good but I don't know if this is the year he really busts out.  Peja and Marion have trade issues.  Maybe Paul Pierce?  It's really a toss up.

2.    Knees N' Stuff:    Seems like knee surgery, or rather micro facture knee surgery, is the issue on many teams minds.   Four pretty good players (Karl Malone, Allan Houston, Jason Kidd, and Chris Webber) are recovering from it and the media has questioned whether it's a KO surgery to a player's career.   What do I know about micro fracture surgery?  Not too much.  But fortunately I found someone who does.  I e-mailed none other than Baseball Prospectus injury guru Will Carroll and asked what the deal was with the surgery and which, if any of the players, had the best chance of recovery.  Here is Will's response:

"It's not experimental, but there's not a lot of data, especially in this population. Most surgeons have moved away from it towards grafted meniscus as a long-term solution, but for [professional athletes], they don't have the time to wait. Several in the NFL have had the procedure, mostly linemen. I'd give it a reasonably high success rate with a reasonably high recurrence rate in hoops, but a lot of that is educated guess. I'd guess Webber is going to come out better than Kidd because he's not moving laterally or stopping quickly as much."

So, recovery really is something of an open question.  Though with Allan Houston, he apparently had the procedure on both knees, with no apparent problem the first time and considerable problems the second time.  Webber looked very poor in his return.  Obviously, the Nets are banking heavily on Kidd being able to comeback near his old level of play and the Nets are claiming that all is on schedule.  Given his age, however, Malone could be done.

3.    Portland-LA, 2000:    The only hoops available last night was ESPN Classic's rerun of Game 4 of the classic Blazer-Laker series from 2000.  This was the Lakers first championship run back when Shaq was spry and he and Kobe didn't overtly despise each other.  The Blazers, by the way, were loaded.  It's already four years later so let me refresh your recollection as to the Portland roster:

This was a really talented, deep team.  Granted Shaq and Kobe were the best players on the floor but players three through ten were all in the Blazers' court.  In retrospect, the Blazers really blew the series.  After splitting the first two games in L.A., the Blazers promptly gave away two games at home, including the aforementioned game, which they led by double figures for much of the contest and, of course, the big lead in game seven at L.A. (though people will correctly remember the refs swallowing their whistles.  The most vivid case was Shaq's butt-check on Steve Smith late in the fourth quarter). 

Portland hasn't made a playoff run since.  Why couldn't the Blazers stay on top?  It was a little bit of everything:

-Bad trades: The Blazers geared their team to stopping Shaq.  Not a bad idea it's just the execution was weak.  First, the Blazers let Brian Grant go (not a terrible thing) and caught Shawn Kemp, who was in the middle of a ridiculous freefall as a player (and a person).  Kemp was pretty useless and pretty expensive.  Even worse, Portland got impatient and trade Jermaine O'Neal, who had barely played as yet, for solid vet Dale Davis.  We all know how that turned out.

-Age:  Key members of the Blazers slowly declined, Steve Smith, Arvydas Sabonis, and Scottie Pippen were all in their 30s and just weren't quite what they were in 1999-00 and prior.  Most notable in decline was Sabonis.  He was still a good player but after 1999-00, his boards and his minutes declined and his replacements were not as useful.

-Bad Luck: Despite all the Blazers problems with age, bad trades/signings, and some internal strife, they were still a good team.  Problem was the Blazers kept drawing the Lakers in the first round.  In 2000-01 and 2002-03, the Lakers slumped and the Blazers caught them at the worst possible time, the first round of the playoffs.  Still, if the Blazers had kept Jermaine O'Neal, the story of the early 2000s could've been different.

4.    ABA Growth:    In one of the weirder off-season stories, the minor-league, the ABA has ambitiously from seven teams to 37 prospective franchises.  In addition to the conventional venues (Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia) the ABA also is tapping some less traveled roads (Orange County, Tijuana, Gwinnett).  This is pretty surprising since the ABA, like most new leagues, has struggled financially since its  inception in 2000.  This may be a tough time to expand with so many leagues popping up around the US, including the NBA's sanctioned minor league, the NBDL.  Of course if costs are low (the players will probably be paid peanuts), a large league could afford for some fun experiments mixing and matching players.  By the way, the Long Beach Jam had tryouts yesterday if you're interested.  

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